Investment bank Jefferies Group has recently released an analysis report on the outlook of global trade under President Donald Trump. According to this report, Jefferies has identified the top 5 countries reaching trade agreements with the US the fastest amid escalating tariff tensions.
The 5 Most Promising Countries Reaching Trade Agreements with the US
Based on various criteria – such as diplomatic relations, the importance of imports and exports, dependence on US goods, and the internal strength of each economy – Jefferies highlighted the five most likely countries to reach trade agreements with the US. These include:
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The United Kingdom
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Japan
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Vietnam
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India
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Cambodia
These countries have significant trade volumes with the US and are heavily impacted by Trump’s new tariff policies. According to Jefferies, these nations not only have strong motivations to reach trade agreements with the US quickly to protect their economic interests but also possess advantages in diplomacy and flexible negotiation capabilities.
Why Are These 5 Countries Expected to Reach Trade Agreements with the US Soon?
Aniket Shah, Head of Sustainable, Transition and Washington Strategy at Jefferies Group, emphasized that the selection of these five countries reaching trade agreements with the US is based on clear and rigorous evaluation criteria, not subjective judgment.
Specifically, Jefferies considered five key factors:
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Diplomatic and personal relationships between national leaders and President Trump’s administration.
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The scale of US goods imported by each country – the higher the demand, the stronger the motivation to negotiate quickly.
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The importance of US exports to the partner country’s GDP.
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Existing tariff gaps between both sides – a direct economic driver during negotiations.
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The internal economic strength of each country – stronger economies have greater advantages at the negotiation table.
After a comprehensive assessment, Jefferies concluded that the UK, Japan, Vietnam, India, and Cambodia are the top countries reaching trade agreements with the US soonest.
Which Companies Will Benefit If Countries Reach Trade Agreements with the US?
If trade agreements are successfully reached, many major stocks could benefit from improved revenue, profits, and reduced tariff barriers. This could accelerate the growth momentum of companies with business operations in these countries.
Textile and Consumer Goods Sector:
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Nike: Producing about half of its shoes in Vietnam and expanding clothing production.
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VF Corp: 26% of its sourcing comes from Vietnam, Abercrombie & Fitch at 35%.
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Deckers Outdoor: Manufacturing most of its products in Vietnam.
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In Cambodia, brands like Nike, VF Corp, Abercrombie & Fitch, and Tapestry have large factories.
Aviation & Industrial Sector:
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Boeing: Expected to benefit in the UK, Japan, and India – major markets for its production and sales.
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In India alone, Boeing is expected to deliver many orders through 2030.
Energy Sector:
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First Solar: Vietnam and India contribute up to 30% of the company’s global production capacity.
Medical Equipment Sector:
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Cooper and Waters: Highly dependent on the UK, Japan, and India – significant revenue contributors.
Other Notable Companies:
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Amazon: Major revenue from the UK (6%) and Japan (4.3%).
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ON Semiconductor: 25% of revenue from the UK.
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Carnival: Owns the largest cruise brand in the UK – P&O Cruises.
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Callaway Brands, Alcon, Howmet Aerospace, Allegro MicroSystems, Lattice Semiconductor – all with large revenue from Japan.
Outlook for Countries Reaching Trade Agreements with the US
Experts believe the timeline and certainty of official trade agreements between the US and these countries reaching trade agreements with the US – Vietnam, India, Cambodia, Japan, and the UK – still contain many uncertainties.
Currently, the market is closely watching the negotiation progress between the US and these countries, especially amid rising trade tensions and US tariff policies impacting many industries.
However, if successful trade deals are reached, stocks deeply linked to these markets are likely to lead growth momentum. This could become a “new catalyst” to boost investor sentiment, in addition to other supporting factors like tax cuts or economic stimulus policies.
Ed Mills, Policy Analyst at Raymond James, noted: “If trade negotiations succeed, market sentiment could shift very quickly. This will be a major opportunity for companies with supply chains or significant revenue in these countries reaching trade agreements with the US.”
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